Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Great grain bull of 2008, killed by MF rogue trader


I didn't realize it at the time but in retrospect the great grain bull market of early 2008 peaked on the liquidation of the rogue trader at MF Global which stuck the firm with a $141 million dollar loss.  The best explanation of the circumstances are in the DOJ press release:

DOJ: MEMPHIS AREA MAN INDICTED FOR CAUSING MF GLOBAL TO LOSE $141 MILLION ON UNAUTHORIZED TRADES OF WHEAT FUTURES CONTRACTS AT CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE IN 2008

Amazing to think that at the peak of the grain bull he was short 17,181 wheat contracts on that night by the time it was limit up!  Click to enlarge all charts.



Above is that night's 1 minute chart of May Chicago wheat which he was mainly short and the volume is shown below. 

On a bigger picture time frame to understand the entire grain bull, here is some longer term perspectives,

Above is daily Chicago March wheat.

Above is 30 minute Chicago March wheat top.

Above is daily KC March wheat.

Above is the top in KC March wheat 1 minute chart.

Above is the top in KC March wheat 30 minute chart.

Above is Minneapolis March wheat, really amazing move and I got to hear some legendary stories when I was up there for the floor closing at year end. 

Above is the top in Minneapolis March wheat, 1 minute chart.

Above is the top in Minneapolis March wheat, 30 minute chart.

Sunday, September 9, 2012

September 11, 2001 charts


Here's a huge dump of charts from 9/11/2001 and a bit further extended time frames, a lot of interesting things in retrospect.  The price levels for all contracts are pretty surprising a decade later now and I am more surprised by the non-moves rather than the moves, especially in how I would've expected certain geopolitical hedges would've moved.

*Click to enlarge all charts*


To lead off is the the September e-mini S&P one minute chart but because the Sept contract expired later that week, the best reference for spoos is the December charts outlayed below.

Above is December e-mini S&P chart, daily

Above is December e-mini S&P chart, 5 minutes

Above is December e-mini S&P chart, 1 minute

Above is WTI NYMEX November crude chart, daily.  Pretty amazing how low oil was trading back in those days by "spiking" to 31/barrel before settling a month later in the low 20s

Above is WTI NYMEX chart, five minutes

Above is COMEX December Gold, daily.  Again it's surprising that the spike was 'only' to 300/oz up from the low 270s that morning.

Above is COMEX December Gold, 5 minutes

Above is the Swiss Franc December contract, daily.

Above is Swiss Franc December, 1 minute

Above is Euro currency FX December, daily

Above is Euro currency FX December, 5 minute

Above is 30yr US Treasury December, daily

Above is 30yr US Treasury December, 1 minute

Above is 2yr US Treasury Note December, daily.  Notice how little open interest there was in this contract back then!

Above is 2yr Treasury Note December, 5 minute.

Above is Eurodollar interest rate September, daily

Above is Eurodollar interest rate September, 1 minute

Above is Eurodollar interest rate December, daily

Above is Eurodollar interest rate December, 1 minute